为解决目前舰炮武器系统可靠性试验时间长、样本量小、双方风险高等实际问题,提出了基于验前信息评定舰炮武器系统可靠性MTBF的Bayes方法,充分挖掘了验前信息资源,有效缩短了试验时间,经仿真计算表明,在同等现场试验条件下,采用该方法可大幅降低可靠性试验双方风险.%To resolve these real problems of test time being long, sample sizes being small and the risk of both sides being high, a new Bayes method assessing MTBF based on prior information has been put forward . The method rootls well prior information and can shorten efficiently test time. The result of simulation calculation shows the method can reduce the risk of both sides under the same condition of locale.
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