Battle effect and attack decisions use generally probabilities to describe the indetermination problems, however probabilities are separated into subjective and objective, for explaining the dissimilarity, by a imaginary straight forward shooting problem, consider only the err of target movement velocity, this paper discussed the essence about known a exact value or a observed value. The conclusion enunciate that, when deal with the successful probabilities of shooting, it is necessity to explain clearly the essence and function of that probabilities. The probability computed based on observed value is subjective, and could be used for the support of decision making. And the decision making precision based on subjective probability depend quite on the precision of transcendental knowledge which is about the exact value of the observed variable and used for computing that subjective probability.%作战效能与攻击决策通常都用概率描述一些不确定问题,然而概率有主观与客观之分,为了说明其不同,以一个假想的直进射击问题为例,只考虑目标运动速率误差,对已知真值或观测值所面对的不确定问题的实质进行了讨论.结论表明,当涉及射击成功概率这些问题时,对其实质与作用有必要给出清楚的说明.只知观测值所计算的概率是主观的,可用于决策信念的支持,基于主观概率进行决策,其精确性十分依赖于所使用的关于观测量真值先验知识的精确性.
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