针对空间碎片数及分布,根据远程导弹飞行散布统计规律,提出一种统计导弹飞行管道内碎片数目的方法,即利用空间碎片模型数据,求出部分区域碎片数目密度随高度变化关系,构造导弹空间飞行管道,将数目密度函数在导弹飞行管道内积分,从而得到管道内碎片数目的期望值,量化评估了导弹与空间碎片的碰撞风险.仿真结果表明,远程导弹与空间碎片的撞击风险数量级为10-7,而飞行管道内碎片数目数量级为10-2,表明空间碎片已威胁到远程导弹的安全飞行.%This paper aims at the number and distribution of space debris. According to the statistical law of long-range missile distribution during its space flight, a statistical method, which is used to calculate the number of debris inside the missile's flight tube, is proposed based on safety of flying missile. Based on the data of space debris model, the paper calculates the functional relationship between the debris density and height, then constructs the space flight tube for missile. Afterwards, the paper integrates density function in the flight tube, and gets the expectation of debris number inside the flying tube. The number reflects collision risk of missile and space debris. Based on this paper's assumption, simulation results show that collision risk of long-range missile and space debris is nearly 1/10,000,000, and the number of space debris inside flight tube is nearly 1/100.
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