基于动态贝叶斯网的炮兵战斗效果评估建模仿真

摘要

依据炮兵火力作战的特点规律,分析炮兵战斗效果评估的内容、程序、建模过程和影响因素,运用动态Bayesian网建立炮兵战斗效果评估模型,运用主成分分析方法确定评估专家权重,运用Poly Tree的消息传递算法进行评估网络推理分析,最后结合案例仿真验证.结果表明,该研究解决了情报信息不确定性、模糊性和动态性等影响战斗效果精确评估问题.%According to artillery fire combat characteristics and pattern, artillery combat effectiveness assessment content, procedure, modeling mechanism and its effect factors is analyzed, artillery combat effectiveness assessment dynamics bayesian networks model is constructed, using principal component analysis to ascertain assessment factor weight, using Poly Tress message delivery algorithm to make bayesian networks reason. At last, a combat example is taken to be simulated and verified, some good results are gained. This research can resolve the problem affected artillery combat effectiveness exact assessment because of combat field intelligence uncertainty, obscure and developments.