决策人员长期受到“弹药迷雾”的困扰，针对弹药保障中需求预计涉及多因素、彼此交错的复杂系统问题，基于系统理论，提出了一种融合解释结构模型（ ISM）和系统动力学（ SD）的弹药消耗预测修正方法。在联合作战背景下对炮兵群弹药消耗问题进行研究，使用解释结构模型研究弹药系统，对弹药保障需求影响因素的相互关系进行了科学的分析和评价，分析了影响弹药保障需求的因素，进而运用系统动力学研究可控制条件下的预测问题。从实验数据分析兵力比对弹药消耗的影响规律，得到有用的结论，并结合战例检验，证明了方法有效，修正了基于任务量公式计算方法的不足，提高了预测的精度。%Ammunition support demand prediction is a complex problem which involved all kinds of intertwined factors. Based on system theory and its derived methods such as ISM(Interpretative Structure Method), SD(System Dynamic), a gun-ammunition-consumption-prediction-correction-method is proposed in this paper. Under the circumstance for predicting the undermanned ammunition consumption of joint war, the ammunition system is analyzed by ISM for constructing the struc-ture of the factors and its relations which affects ammunition support demand systematically. and then by SD,prediction prob-lem under controllability condition is discussed. After analyzing experiment data, some useful conclusion can be got. As a conclusion, this method is validated by a history example, and the results shows the accuracy of prediction will be enhanced by this method, disadvantage of the Task Quantum method will be solved either. It is a new way of thinking about ammunition prediction.
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