舰空导弹武器系统操控人员操作可靠性评估

摘要

针对舰空导弹武器系统操控人员操作使用影响问题，根据经典的人行为的S-O-R模式，通过串联模型框架，构建了武器系统操控人员操作可靠性评估模型，以评定武器系统操控人员的操作可靠度。其中，通过贝叶斯网络，评定武器系统操控人员分别在感知、判断决策和行动阶段的可靠性。即由专家根据实践经验，给定武器系统操控人员单个失误行为的似然率；通过采用模糊综合评价方法，评定武器系统操控人员单个失误行为的先验概率。%Aimed at tbe problem of operation influence for ship-to-air missile weapon system operator, based on the classical S-O-R mode, operational reliability evaluation model of the system operator by use of series-wound model frame is estab-lished. Thereinto, the operator reliabilities in phases of apperceiving, decision-making and action are evaluated respectively by use of the bayesian network theory. Through the expert experience, the subsequent probability of single misplay for system operator is presented. Through the fuzzy synthesis evaluation method, the foregoing probability of single misplay is assessed.