高海情对反导舰炮命中概率的影响

摘要

According to sea⁃wave mathematical model and swing characters of the ship, firstly swing character graph of the ship equipped by an antimissile gun has been simulated under condition of high sea sate. Secondly, the effect of high sea state on the firing data has been analyzed. Thirdly, this paper produces randomly the increments of azimuth and elevation in firing data range by using with conversion sample,and calculates probability deviation of the increments by solving six⁃degree ballistic model, then the hit probability under high sea sate condition can be derived. Finally, statistical analysis on hundreds of simulation results has been carried out, and an utility conclusion is presented,which can provide a valuable reference to the range test and accuracy design.%根据某型反导舰炮配装的舰船摇摆特性及海浪运动数学模型，首先模拟得到高海情舰船摇摆趋势图；然后分析了高海情对反导舰炮射击诸元的影响；其次，采用变换抽样法在高海情射击诸元变化范围内随机产生方位角和高低角增量，通过解6自由度弹道方程计算方位角和高低角增量概率误差，再根据概率误差解算高海情条件下系统的命中概率；最后，对大量的仿真计算结果进行统计分析，得出了具有实用价值的结论，为靶场试验及系统精度设计提供参考。