直航鱼雷发现概率的解析计算方法

摘要

针对传统的鱼雷发现概率统计计算方法计算量大的问题,从目标散布与鱼雷散布误差入手,分析了各个目标要素及鱼雷射击提前角误差传播规律,利用误差转播定理建立了直航鱼雷发现目标概率的解析计算模型,通过与传统的蒙特卡洛统计法对比分析,验证了解析计算模型的正确性,为鱼雷发现概率的实时预估和鱼雷控制参数的实时优化奠定了基础.%According to the traditional statistical calculation method of torpedo found probability with large computation, from the analysis of target distribution and torpedo dispersion error, the various target elements and torpedo advance angle er-ror propagation, using the error transmission theorem established the analytical calculation model of direct torpedo found probability, by comparing with the traditional Monte Carlo statistic method,verifying the correctness of the analytical model, laid the foundation for real time prediction of torpedo found probability and real time optimization of torpedo control parame-ters.