基于广义网络分析和云模型的潜艇威胁风险评估

摘要

针对全球气候变化背景下岛礁主权争端变化的复杂性和不确定性,研究探讨了海上可能面临的敌潜艇威胁.针对风险评估建模时难以有效评判社会因素、自然因素的困难 ,提出了广义网络分析法和云模型结合的研究思想,构建了气候变化背景下潜艇威胁风险评估模型, 实现了潜艇威胁的量化评估,旨在为反潜体系建设规划提供决策依据.%Based on complexity and uncertainty of natural environmental changes Islands Sovereignty Dispute in the background of global climate change, we explore the risks of submarine.Confronting with sophisticated social and natural factors for effective evaluation, this paper puts forward a new method which combines Generalized Analytic Network Process and The Cloud Model, and design a climate change risk assessment model in order to provide submarine in face of climate change.Moreover, the methods and approaches of analysis will provide technical references for the planning and construction of anti-submarine system.