Taking the main urban area of Huai'an City of Jiangsu Province as an example, the paper reviews the trajectory of urban morphological evolution, analyzes the spatial characteristics of land price and the volume rate of transferred land, calculates the elastic coefficient of land-capital substitution in the main urban area of Huai'an, and conducts a quantitative analysis on the land market mechanism of urban morphological evolution. The study finds that the land market mechanism plays a certain role in the evolution process of urban morphology, and under the action of land market, there has formed an urban morphology with a compact and intensive development in the city center and continuous expansions in the urban periphery. The spatial density and land price in the urban center are higher than the outskirts. In the central urban area, the land price fl uctuation range is more signifi cant than the density fl uctuation range; while in the outskirts, the land price fluctuation range is less signifi cant than the density fl uctuation range in the suburb, showing that the land price change is very sensitive to location. According to the results of elastic coefficient of land-capital substitution, the land market mechanism can partly explain the mechanism of urban morphological evolution, but the effects of land market on the morphological evolution is not signifi cant, indicating that the non-market factors still play an important role in the process of urban spatial morphological evolution.%以江苏省淮安市主城区为例,梳理主城区城市空间形态演变的轨迹,分析了出让土地的地价与容积率的空间特征,计算淮安主城区土地-资本替代的弹性系数,对城市空间形态演变的土地市场机制进行了定量分析.研究发现,土地市场机制对城市空间形态演变发挥了一定的作用,在土地市场的作用下,形成了中心地段紧凑集约发展、外围连续蔓延拓展的城市空间形态.城市中心空间密度和土地价格较高,城市外围空间密度和土地价格较低,城市中心区的地价波动幅度要大于密度波动幅度,城市外围地价波动幅度则要小于密度波动幅度,地价对于区位变化的反映十分灵敏.从土地-资本替代弹性系数测度结果来看,土地市场机制能够部分解释城市空间形态演变的机制,但土地市场对城市空间形态演变的作用绩效还不够显著,说明非市场因素在城市空间形态演变过程中仍然起较重要作用.
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