文山烟区烤烟气候适宜性评价及其变化特征分析

摘要

Based on meteorological data from 1991 to 2010 at the meteorological stations in Wenshan, climatic feasibility to tobacco growth was evaluated comprehensively by using the method of fuzzy logic and multivariate analysis. The characteristic of climate changes was analyzed by using the method of linear trend and cubic polynomial curve. The results indicated that the climatic feasibility indexes(CFI) for flue-cured tobacco was 0.801±0.018. All of the counties were feasible or most feasible tobacco-growing areas .The sunshine durations had a ascending trend in last 20 years in Wenshan, The temperature during root elongation stage had a decreasing trend, and the opposition for vigorous growth and maturing stage. The rainfall of root elongation and vigorous growth stages had a ascending trend, and the opposition for maturing stage, the changes of root elongation and vigorous growth stage present the characteristic of “fall-rise-fall”, and the changes of maturing stage present the characteristic of “rise-fall”.%以文山各县区1991—2010年累计20年的气象观测数据为基础资料，基于模糊数学原理，运用多元统计分析方法对文山烤烟气候适宜性进行了综合评价，并采用线性趋势、三次多项式曲线拟合分析了烤烟生育期的各气候要素的变化特征。结果表明，文山烟区烤烟气候适宜性指数为0.801±0.018，各植烟县市均为最适宜或适宜烤烟气候区；文山20年中大田期日照时数变化总体呈上升趋势，呈现先下降后升高再下降的变化特征；伸根期均温总体呈下降趋势，而旺长期和成熟期均温总体呈上升趋势，各生育期均温呈现先短暂上升后下降再升高的变化特征；伸根期和旺长期降雨量总体呈上升趋势，而成熟期降雨量总体呈下降趋势，伸根期和旺长期降雨量呈现先下降后升高再下降的变化特征，而成熟期降雨量呈现先上升后下降的变化特征。