Objective Based on the mathematical models established in Department of Thoracic Surgery of Peking University People's Hospital for predicting malignant probability for solitary pulmonary nodules ( SPN),another continuous 145 patients with SPN were assessed to verify the accuracy of the model comparing with foreign models (Mayo model and VA model).Methods A retrospective cohort study in our institution included 145 patients with definite pathological diagnosis of SPN from Oct 2009 to Aug 2011,72 males and 73 females,average age (59.4 ± 12.2 ) years old.Clinical data included age,gender,course of disease,symptoms,history and quantity of smoking,time of smoking cessation,history of tumor,family history of tumor,tumor site,diameter,calcification,speculation,border,lobulation,traction of pleural,vascular convergence sign,and cavity.These raw data were incorporated into our model,Mayo model and VA model,the probability of malignant in every patient was calculated separately according to methods described before.The sensitivity and specificity of these 3 models were evaluated then.Afterwards,calibration of the 3 models was assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test.Discrimination was tested by calculating the area under curve ( AUC ) after the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn.Results 32.4％ (47 in 145 patients) of the nodules were malignant,and 67.6％ (98 in 145 patients) were benign in this group.Verified the accuracy of our model with sensitivity of 94.9％,specificity of 66.0％,positive predictive value of 85.3％ and negative predictive value of 86.1％.The H-L test showed good fitting in all models ( P ＞0.05 ).The AUC for our model was 0.874 ±0.035,and 0.784 ± 0.041 in Mayo model (P =0.004 compared to our model),0.754 ± 0.041 in VA model (P =0.002 compare to our model).And,there was not significant statistical difference between Mayo model and VA model (P ＞0.05 ).Our model has the best precision indexed by AUC,which were statistically significant differential compared with Mayo model and VA model.Conclusion The model established by our center has superior value than foreign counterparts in predicting the probability of malignant or benign in patients with SPN.%目的 在前期初步建立的国人孤立性肺结节(SPN)良恶性判断数学模型的基础上,总结后续连续145例SPN患者临床资料,验证该模型的准确性,并与国外模型进行比较.方法 2009年10月至2011年8月,连续手术获得病理明确诊断的SPN 145例,其中男72例,女73例；平均年龄(59.4±12.2)岁.收集临床资料包括患者年龄、性别、病程、症状、吸烟史、吸烟量、戒烟时间、既往肿瘤史、肿瘤家族史、肿瘤部位、肿瘤最大径、肿瘤有无钙化、毛刺、分叶、胸膜牵拉征、边界清楚、血管集束征、空洞共17项临床资料,将所需资料代入相应模型中,分别验证国人模型与国外模型对SPN良、恶性判断的敏感性和特异性等,通过Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L)检验判断各数学预测模型的校准度,并绘制ROC曲线,通过曲线下面积( AUC)检验其预测的鉴别度,判断临床应用价值.结果 145例SPN中良性47例(32.4％),恶性98例(67.6％).应用国人数学模型预测良、恶性的灵敏度为94.9％,特异度为66.0％,阳性预测值为85.3％,阴性预测值为86.1％.H-L检验结果显示,3个临床模型的拟合均较好(P＞0.05).国人数学模型的AUC为0.874±0.035,Mayo模型为0.784±0.041 (P =0.004),VA模型为0.754 ±0.041 (P =0.002),国人数学模型与国外模型比较差异有统计学意义,以前者预测准确率最高.结论 前期建立的国人SPN良、恶性判断数学预测模型有较高临床价值,效果优于国外模型.
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