现代实证性社会预警的探索

摘要

A new theoretical model of social alarming index system with its operational platforms was constructed on the basis of the research on modem positive social alarming systems at home and abroad. A retrospective evaluation of the state of social harmony and stability in China from 1985 to 2002 and a simulation of social alarming feedback loops empirically examined the effectiveness of this new social alarming index system.