北极海冰消融情景下环北极国家利益争端的动态博弈建模技术

摘要

以气温升高为主要特征的全球气候变化，致使北极海冰持续融化，北极地区丰富的资源、便捷的航行通道、重要的战略地位以及军事价值逐渐凸显出来。北冰洋沿岸的美国、俄罗斯、加拿大、丹麦和挪威等国家纷纷加入到北极利益争夺的行列中。为模拟和评估环北极国家在利益追逐中的合作与冲突行为的演化，基于博弈论思想，构建了环北极五国博弈的动态争端模型，提出了物质收益、惩罚损失和名誉收益等三个机制，综合考虑了气候变化、物质收益、国家关系与国家威望、国际法律法规等因素对环北极五国行为的综合影响。针对当前环北极各国在北极问题上的合作与争端开展了动态博弈建模，并对北极海冰完全消融情景时环北极各国在多种不同合作模式下的争端情况进行了模拟预估与实验仿真。%Continued elevated temperatures are a major feature of global climate change and are associated with a marked increase in Arctic sea ice melting.The decrease in Arctic sea ice resulting from increased melting has resulted in access to abundant resources,has opened a convenient navigation channel through the Arctic region,and has im-pacted strategic and military operations.The United States,Russia,Canada,Norway and Denmark are all seeking benefits related to the reduction in Arctic sea ice.A dynamic model based on game theory was constructed to ex-plore acts of cooperation and conflict among the Arctic circumpolar countries in the harnessing of these benefits. This model included comprehensive consideration of factors including climate change,material benefits,national relations,national prestige,and international laws and regulations.This dynamic game model was used to simulate and predict the outcomes of different patterns of cooperation in the scenario of complete loss of Arctic sea ice.