悬韧带松解阴茎延长术后延长长度预测模型的建立和验证

摘要

Objective To establish a model of individually forecasting the penile length gained after penis lengthening.Methods A total of 322 patients were diagnosed congenital penile shortness and received partial suspensory ligament release in our department from Oct.1988 to Apr.2011.The patients were divide into two groups as Modeling Group( n =200) and Checking Group( n =122).Then a twodimensional model of the suspensory-ligament-release penis lengthening is established.In the Modeling Group,a statistical analysis of the penile length in flaccid and erectile state before and after penis lengthening was carried out,and a forecasting predictive function of increased penile length was derived.Then the predictive accurate rate was tested in the Checking Group.Results There was a significant linear correlation between the increased length in flaccid and erectile state ( correlation coefficient =0.921,P ＜ 0.01 ),there was also a similar relationship between the extension rate of erection before and after the operation ( correlation coefficient =0.803,P ＜ 0.01 ).According to the significant linear correlations showing above,two regression forecasting models were established.A predictive function of increased flaccid length was derived from the two regression forecasting models.The effectively forecasting rates were 84.5％ (169/200,the Modeling Group) and 87.7％ (107/122,the Checking Group) when the absolute value of forecasting error was less than 1.5 cm.Conclusions The discovered significant correlation and the established forecasting function provide us a model of roughly and individually forecasting the penile length gained after penis lengthening.%目的 研究悬韧带松解阴茎延长术术后延长长度的个体化预测方法.方法 选取第三军医大学第一附属医院整形美容科1988年10月至2011年4月行悬韧带松解阴茎延长术的先天性阴茎发育不良病例322例,随机分为建模组(200例)与验证组(122例),将建模组手术前、后的常态与勃起状态阴茎长度等指标进行相关性或线性回归分析,并推导预测公式,通过建模组与验证组中预测结果与实际结果的一致性来评价预测效果.结果 患者术后常态与勃起状态的延长长度以及术前、术后阴茎由常态到勃起状态的伸长率存在显著的相关性(相关系数分别为0.921、0.803,P＜0.01),由此可推导出延长长度的预测公式,通过对建模组与验证组的数据进行检验,预测误差在±1.5 cm以内时其有效预测率分别为84.5％(169/200)和87.7％(107/122).结论 该预测公式可用于悬韧带松解阴茎延长术后延长长度的初步个体化预测.