江苏省昆山市1981年-2015年肺癌死因对期望寿命和潜在减寿年影响分析

摘要

背景与目的 肺癌发病率和死亡率在男性和女性人群持续上升,但是有关肺癌所致的潜在减寿年和去肺癌死因可增加期望寿命时间变化趋势的研究较少.本研究旨在探究江苏省昆山市1981年-2015年去肺癌死因可增加期望寿命和肺癌所致的潜在减寿年时间趋势.方法 1981年-2015年肺癌死亡病例来源于死因监测,以计算去肺癌死因可增加期望寿命和潜在减寿年.用中国2000年第五次人口普查的年龄结构计算分性别的年龄标化潜在减寿年.使用年度变化百分比(estimate annual percentage change,eAPC)评价去肺癌可增加期望寿命和潜在减寿年在年份之间变化趋势.结果 总人群中去肺癌死因可增加期望寿命由1981年的0.34岁上升到2015年的0.86岁,上升趋势有统计学意义(APC=3.2％,95％CI:2.8％-3.6％);男性人群(APC=3.0％,95％CI:2.5％-3.5％)和女性人群中(APC=3.6％,95％CI:3.0％-4.2％)去肺癌死因可增加期望寿命也呈现上升趋势.肺癌所致的标化潜在减寿年在总人群(APC=-0.1％,95％CI:-0.6％-0.4％)和男性人群(APC=-0.5％,95％CI:-1.1％～0.1％)无明显趋势变化,而女性人群中明显上升(APC=1.5％,95％CI:0.3％-2.7％).结论 虽然因肺癌所致的过早死亡没有趋势变化,而肺癌死因对全人群期望寿命的影响在持续上升,有针对性的肺癌预防控制措施亟需开展.%Background and objective Previous reports have shown that lung cancer incidence and mortality were increasing both in male and female;however,the temporal trends in lung cancer eliminated life expectancy and potential years of life lost (PYLL) are very rare.Thus,we examine the temporal trends in lung cancer eliminated life expectancy and PYLL in Kunshan city,Jiangsu province,1981-2015.Methods Data were collected from vital registry of Kunshan city.Lung cancer eliminated life expectancy and the PYLL were calculated by sex.The Chinese population in 2000 was used to calculate age-standardized PYLL.Estimate annual percentage changes (eAPC) and 95％ confidence interval (CI) were used to examine the temporal trendss.Results During 1981 to 2015,substantially increasing trend was observed for the lung cancer eliminated life expectancy,which increased by 0.34 years in 1981 to 0.86 in 2015 (APC=3.2％,95％CI:2.8％-3.6％),and a significant increasing trend was found for male (APC=3.0％,95％CI:2.5％-3.5％) and female (APC=3.6％,95％CI:3.0％-4.2％).Moreover,the age-standardized PYLL among both sex (APC=-0.1％,95％CI:-0.6％-0.4％) and male (APC=-0.5％,95％CI:-1.1％-0.1％) were stable,but increasing trend was observed in females (APC=1.5％,95％CI:0.3％-2.7％).Conclusion Although there was no significant change over the past 3 decades regarding the effect of premature deaths due to lung cancer,a substantial increasing trend was observed in lung cancer eliminated life expectancy,which suggested that targeted lung cancer prevention and control measures are urgently need.