In this paper our studies about the sequential testing program for predicting and identificating carcinogens, sequential discriminant method and cost- effectiveness analysis are summarized. The analysis of our database of carcinogeniclty and genotoxicity of chemicals demonstrates the uncertainty . of short- term tests ( STTs ) to predict carcinogens and the results of most routine STTs are statistically dependent. We recommend the sequential testing program combining STTs and carclnogenicity assay, the optimal STT batteries, the rules of the sequential discrimination and the preferal choices of STTs tor specific chemical class. For illustrative pmposes the carclnogenicity prediction of several sample chamicals is presented. The results of cost-effectiveness analysis suggest that this program has vast social-economic effectiveness.
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