Can Time-Space Compression Promote Urban Economic Growth? Evidence from China's High-speed Rail Projects

摘要

This paper studies the effect of high-speed rail (HSR) on urban economic growth using a panel data comprising 285 Chinese cities in 2007-2017.Combining the endogenous growth model with a difference-in-difference analysis,we extend the horse-mass theory to explain how China may use HSR to avoid the so-called middle-income trap.The paper also examines the efficient boundaries of HSR and simultaneously studies HSR time-space compression as well as the city neighboring effects on economic growth.It is found that HSR's efficient boundaries are within the range of 200-1,200 km for provincial capitals and 50-300 km for prefecture-level cities.HSR stimulates economic growth by approximately 0.6 percent,and the neighboring effect accounts for one-quarter of economic growth.Three policy implications are drawn: (i) China needs to further reduce the travel times between the inland provincial cities and Beijing,Shanghai or Guangzhou;(ii) China should build a denser HSR network to maximize its economic impact on the vast majority of cities;(iii) China needs to develop some powerful economic growth centers in the inland areas to lead the development of their neighboring cities.