FLNG/FLPG新型装置设备风险评估方法研究

摘要

针对FLNG/FLPG新型装置上设备数量多,故障模式复杂,风险评估模型层次不清导致风险评估结果往往不准确的问题,提出了一种FLNG/FLPG新型装置的设备风险评估方法:以层次分析法构造工艺模块、设备、故障模式3个层次的风险评估模型,然后采用改进的FMEA对最低层次的设备故障模式进行评估,最后运用多级模糊综合评判方法逐层上推,得出FLNG/FLPG新型装置整船层次上各工艺模块的设备风险评估结果.应用实例表明,该方法可为FLNG/FLPG新型装置设备的维修及设备风险管理提供决策依据,同时对其他系统的设备风险评估可提供一定的参考.%There is a large quantity of equipments in a FLNG/FLPG installation and their fault modes are always complicated and messy. All of these will lead to an inaccurate result in the risk assessment. In this paper, a risk assessment method is established for FLNG/FLPG installation' s equipments. The method of A HP is used firstly to build the three-level model; module,equipment and fault. Then the bottom level of fault mode is analyzed by the improved FMEA. Lastly the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is adopted to calculate the risk of equipments in the level of modules in the FLNG/FLPG installation. The application case shows that the method can provide references and decision-making bases for equipment repair and risk management of FLNG/FLPG installation and other systems.