矿山生产能力可信度的Monte Carlo模拟与应用研究

摘要

There is great uncertainty in the process of design underground mine's capacity.In order to reduce its decision risk,the Monte Carlo simulations of the reliability of mine capacity is established.Taking the capacity simulations of initial mining level of a molybdenum mine in Heilongjiang as an example,the Monte Carlo simulations of the reliability of mine capacity is separately carried out with the design method of the numbers of simultaneously mining block,and the design method of mining decreasing speed per year and the design method of new level preparation time.Comprehensive analysis shows that the reliability of mine capacity of 300×104 t/a,500×104 t/a and 750×104 t/a are respectively 100％,99.1％～88.4％ and 84.0％～9.85％,and the simulation results can provide a reference for mine capacity design.%地下矿山生产能力的设计具有广泛的不确定性,为减少生产能力决策风险,建立了矿山生产能力可信度的Monte Carlo模拟方法.以黑龙江某钼矿首采中段的生产能力方案模拟为例,分别进行了按同时回采矿块数、矿山开采年下降速度和新水平准备时间的生产能力可信度的Monte Carlo方法模拟,综合分析表明,300×104 t/a、500×104 t/a、750×104 t/a的矿山生产能力方案的可信度分别为100％、99.1％～88.4％、84.0％～9.85％,模拟结果可为生产能力设计提供参考.