研究目的:基于重庆市渝中区土地利用的历史数据,研究城市更新区域土地利用变化的驱动因素,以及在其影响下土地利用变化的规律.研究方法:Logistic回归模型,转移概率矩阵.研究结果:(1)影响渝中区土地利用变化的因素在不同时期表现出不用的作用机制,即以政府为主导的城市更新模式下建筑物理状态对土地利用变化的作用显著,而企业主导模式下区域商业价值、稀缺资源等因素显著影响了土地利用的变化.(2)渝中区不同土地利用类型相互转变情况在各个时期内也具有显著的差异,即在以政府主导的城市更新模式下,土地利用的转变更多体现为原用地功能的优化更新,而在市场力量参与的更新模式下,土地用途的跨类型转换,特别是向商业类型的转变更为普遍.研究结论:城市更新片区的土地利用变化受更新主体与更新目标取向的综合影响,形成了政策取向—更新目标取向—实施主体—项目建设—用地变化这一传导脉络.%The purpose of this paper is to study the driving factors of land use change in urban renewal area and the rule of land use change based on the historical data of land use in Yuzhong District, Chongqing City. The methods employed include Logistic regression model and transition probability matrix. The result indicates that 1)the driving factors of land use change in Yuzhong District show different mechanisms in different stages, namely, in the government-led urban renewal mode, the effect of building physical state on land use change is remarkable, while regional commercial value, scarce resources and other factors have great influence on land use change in the market-oriented mode; 2)different land use conversions also show significant difference in each stage, that is, in the government-led urban renewal mode, the land use conversion more reflects as the optimization and renewal of the function of the original land. With the more and more important roles played by enterprises in urban renewal, the layout of urban commercial space and the spatial distribution of public facilities have changed obviously. With the continuous promotion of urban renewal, the increase of demolition cost has made commercial land as the main renewal object, and then other land use(mainly residential land) has been renewed. In conclusion, policy orientation-renewal target orientation-implementation subject-project construction-land use change is the driving mechanism of land use change in urban renewal area.
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