政策性农业保险对农业生产水平影响效应的实证研究——基于全国31个省份面板数据分位数回归

摘要

基于2007-2015年全国31个省份的面板数据,利用面板分位数回归方法从农业保险发展水平与农业保险赔付水平2个维度实证分析了政策性农业保险对我国农业生产的影响,并针对实证结果进行了子样本的稳健性检验.分析结果表明:农业保险发展水平可以显著促进农业生产水平的提高,但在不同分位下其影响效应存在差别,在较低分位上,农业保险发展水平对农业生产水平促进作用较大,随着分位点的提高,农业保险发展水平对农业生产水平的促进作用逐渐降低.然而农业保险赔付水平对农业生产水平的促进作用相对较小.因此完善政策性农业保险制度应当努力扩大农业保险覆盖面,重点扩大农业生产水平较低地区的农业保险覆盖面,着力提高农业保险保障和赔付水平,增加农业保险险种.%On the basis of provincial panel data of 31 provinces nationwide from 2007 to 2015,this study empirically investigates,which focus on two perspectives of the development of agricultural insurance and the compensation of agricultural insurance are conducted.The effect of policy-supported agricultural insurance on agricultural production via panel quantile regression and the outcome is tested by subsample robustness test.According to the regression outcome,the development of agricultural insurance can significantly improve agricultural production.However,the effect is different by quantile level:In the lower quantile,the development of agricultural insurance has more positive effect on agricultural production.With the increase of quantile,the positive effect of the development of agricultural insurance on agricultural production is gradually diminishing.The effect of the compensation of agricultural insurance on agricultural production is relatively small.Therefore,expanding the coverage of agricultural insurance,especially in the areas of less agricultural production,is important to improve the policy-supported agricultural insurance.Besides,increasing the compensation of agricultural insurance and categories of agricultural insurance is also of great importance to agricultural production.