边境民族地区旅游经济系统脆弱性评价及其优化路径--以延边朝鲜族自治州为例

摘要

The paper, taking Yanbian Prefecture as an example, establishing an vulnerability assessment model of tourism economic system, then adopting entropy method and set pair analysis model, analyzing the evolu-tion characteristics of vulnerability of tourism economic system during 2000—2013.The results indicated that the e-volution tendency of the sensitivity of tourism economy could be described as“sharply rise-rapidly decline-resilient-ly rise-steadily decline” since 2000 , and the degree of sensitivity achieved to the peak in 2003;the evolution trend of response capacity of tourism economy was relatively stable, roughly presented the tendency as “first rising after falling”;the vulnerability of tourism economy presented a downtrend, and its tendency was consistent with the sen-sitivity of tourism economy.Finally, putting forward the optimization path to reducing vulnerability and implemen-ting sustainable development of tourism economy by developing ethnic economy, speeding up cross-border tourism cooperation and improving the tourism industry policies, and looking forward to providing reference to the develop-ment of tourism industry for other border ethnic regions.%以我国边境民族地区———延边朝鲜族自治州为例，构建旅游经济系统脆弱性评价指标体系，运用熵值法和集对分析模型，分析延边州2000—2013年旅游经济脆弱性演变特征。结果显示：①2000年以来，延边州旅游经济敏感性呈“急剧上升—快速下降—反弹回升—平稳下降”变化趋势，2003年敏感性程度达到顶峰；②旅游经济应对能力变化趋势较为平稳，大致呈“先降后升”演化态势，；③旅游经济脆弱性总体呈下降趋势，震荡起伏特征突出，走势与旅游经济敏感性高度一致。从发展民族经济、实现跨境旅游合作、完善旅游产业政策等方面提出了降低延边州旅游经济脆弱性、实现旅游经济可持续发展的优化路径，以期为其他边境民族地区旅游业发展提供科学参考。