基于状态-动力分析框架的河南省健康城镇化时空格局

摘要

On the base of understanding to healthy urbanization, the evaluation index system of healthy urban-ization was established which included status index system and driving index system. Entropy weighted grey correla-tion model, Theil indexes and coupling harmonious degree model were used to analyze the spatial and temporal pat-tern of healthy urbanization in Henan Province. Results were shown as follow:From the perspective of time, at the angle of status side the level of healthy urbanization in Henan Province from 2002 to 2014 was increasing continu-ously;the obvious influencing factor of healthy urbanization to sustain side became social development, economic development, and optimizing of resource and environment, etc., but former factor was only social development. And at the angle of driving side, the supporting capacity of pulling and pushing was weak; and pushing sustain system side arrived at the stage of reluctant coordination in 2011, however pulling sustain system side steadily arrived at the stage of reluctant coordination in 2011, pushing sustain system side and pulling sustain system side all arrived at the stage of primary coordination in 2014. From the perspective of space, at the angle of status side the level of healthy urbanization for every city in Henan Province from 2002 to 2014 kept increasing and the regional difference among 18 provincially-administered cities became small. And at the angle of driving side the contribuion from pul-ling sustain system to healthy urbanization was increasing contentiously and its regional difference became small;and the change of comprehensive coordination index and coupling coefficient which explaining the coupling coordi-nation degree was contrary. And the contribution from pushing sustain system to healthy urbanization was increasing and its regional difference became small; and two index, comprehensive coordination index and coupling coeffi-cient, to explaining the coupling coordination degree became small respectively. At 2002 and 2014, the important factors to affect healthy urbanization from driving angle side was different.%基于对健康城镇化的理解,构建包括状态层面和动力层面的健康城镇化评价指标体系,采用熵权灰色关联模型、泰尔指数和耦合协调度模型研究河南省健康城镇化的时空演变特征。其时间演变特征为：状态层面上,2002—2014年河南省健康城镇化水平呈现波动、快速增长的特征；社会健康城镇化、经济健康城镇化和生态环境健康对状态层面影响较大,其他方面的影响亦增大。动力层面上,推力和拉力支持系统对健康城镇化的支撑持续增长,但存在一定的差异；从发展阶段来看,推力支持系统从2011年开始处于勉强协调阶段,拉力支持系统则在2011年稳定进入勉强协调阶段,拉力和推力支持系统均于2014年开始进入初级协调阶段。其空间演变特征为：状态层面上,2002—2014年健康城镇化水平不断增长,区域差异缩小；动力层面上,拉力支持系统对健康城镇化的支撑在增加的同时区域差异缩小,耦合协调度的2个解释性指标中,综合协调指数的区域差异缩小,而耦合度的区域差异增大；推力支持系统对健康城镇化的支撑在增强的同时区域差异缩小,综合协调指数和耦合度区域差异性趋小。在2个时间节点上,影响健康城镇化动力层面的深层次原因既有相似性,又有差异性。