电晕电流时间序列时域特性的分析及预测

摘要

特高压输电线路中的局部放电会产生电晕电流,引起电能损耗、可听噪声、电磁干扰等问题,过强的电磁辐射会危及生态健康,通过对电晕电流进行有效地监测能保障输电线路安全、经济地运行.针对此问题,对电晕电流信号建立自回归积分滑动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型,并进行滚动预测,预测误差度量指标和电晕电流时域统计指标均符合要求.该方法具有一定的适用性,可用于不同输电等级下电晕电流信号的拟合及预测.%The local discharge in an ultra high voltage direct current (UHV DC) transmission line may cause corona current, leading to power loss, audible noise and electromagnetic interference, while too intense electromagnetic radiation threatens the ecological health. By effectively monitoring corona current, the safe and economical operation of transmission lines can be ensured. Aiming at this problem, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was established for rolling prediction, both the measurement indices on the predicted errors and the time-domain statistic indices of corona current complied with the requirements. The method can be applied to the fit and prediction of the signal of corona current at different transmission levels and it has a certain applicability. The results laid a solid foundation for the subsequent research of corona properties in different measurement environments.