基于ARIMA模型的网络安全威胁态势预测方法

摘要

In order to solving the difficulty of forecasting the variation trend of the network security threat situation. The paper proposed a forecasting method based on the ARJMA model, which made use of the data of network security threat situation having the feature of time series. Firstly, this method analysed the information of services, leaks, and vulnerabilities and so on which were related to the network security. After this, the paper computed the network security threat situation reasonably. Based on that, forecasting the variation trend of the network security threat situation used a ARIMA model. The experiment results show that this method not only can reflect the true variation trend of network security threat situation,but also its prediction accuracy is higher.%针对网络安全威胁态势变化趋势预测的困难性,利用网络安全威胁态势值具有时间序列的特点,提出了一种基于ARIMA的模型的网络安全威胁态势预测方法.该方法首先分析服务、漏洞、弱点等与网络安全相关的信息,合理地计算出网络安全威胁态势值,进而使用ARIMA模型的预测方法对所得序列的变化趋势进行预测.实验结果表明,该方法不仅能够反映真实的网络安全威胁态势的变化趋势,而且其预测的精度也较高.