消费者口碑传播行为及交互影响的模拟仿真研究

摘要

基于元胞自动机模型对消费者正面口碑、负面口碑和中立口碑传播行为之间的影响作用和动态演变进行了模拟仿真，讨论了在不同消费者初始状态、行为保持性、行为传播性和实施不同政策力度条件下，消费者口碑传播行为演化的趋势和状态。模拟结果得到如下结论：a）口碑传播网络中消费者的初始状态对系统演化的走向起重要作用，要重视对现有消费者构成的调查和研究；b）行为传播力度增大，对口碑传播的影响增大，能够引起口碑系统的连锁反应，系统构成发生很大改变；c）消费者自身口碑态度的保持性对口碑系统的演化有重要影响；d）对正面口碑的鼓励政策能够在很大程度上提高消费者的正面传播，从而提高整个系统的消费者忠诚度。研究能够帮助企业正确理解消费者口碑行为及相互影响作用，制定针对性的营销与售后管理策略，从而有效控制和引导消费者口碑行为。%This paper consider the problem of consumers’word-of-mouth (WOM)modeling and simulation based on cellular automata (CA).It defined three kinds of WOMbehavior called positive WOM,zero WOMand negative WOMand then simula-ted interactive influences of WOM behavior among consumers.It provided a new cellular description of behavior states and de-fined evolution rules for the CA model.In order to find what might influence the WOMbehavior and how,it considerd two cel-lular attributes of behavior’s influence force (recorded as influence)and behavior’s insistence force (recorded as insist-ence).Finally,this papar used an improved CA model to simulate how WOMbehaviors evolved,and how encouragement rules influenced WOM behaviors.