云南—东南亚航空网络影响下的甲型H1N1的时空传播模拟研究

摘要

In view of the question about air travel passengers affected the spatiotemporal transmission of diseases,this paper proposed air-transportation networks as a point of penetration and researched on key techniques of the integration of air-transportation networks and agent,built an agent-based approach for modelling the spread in space and time of disease,and simulated the spread of H1N1 influenza in Yunnan and Southeast Asia area in 2009-2010.This model was composed of inter-city and intra-city,human population of a city represented an agent,the intra-city model used classical SEIR model and without considering spatial differences,the inter-city model simulated different population mobility,thus simulating the spread of H1N1 influenza inter-city.The experimental results show that the way of air-transportation accelerates the spread of the epidemic without strict control.%针对航空旅行影响传染性疾病时空传播过程的问题,提出了以航空交通网络为切入点,融合智能体(agent)技术,构建一个基于航空网络的疾病时空传播agent模型,并模拟2009-2010年甲型H1N1流感在云南和东南亚区域的传播.其中模型由城市间与城市内模型组成,agent代表一个城市人类种群,在城市内采用不考虑空间差异的SEIR模型;在城市间根据航空网络构建agent模型来模拟不同人群空间上的流动,从而模拟疾病在城市间的传播.实验结果表明,航空交通运输方式加速了流行病的扩散,假设不设任何控制的机制,流感只需40 d左右就蔓延到整个研究区域;而在整个完整的航空网络下,新加坡只需要55 d左右的时间就可迎来疫情的高峰期.