2012年7月9日临朐地区暴雨成因及漏报原因分析

摘要

ln order to further study the drop zone of torrential rain in Weifang and summarize the experience of forecasting torrential rain in the future, a special diag-nosis analysis was made on the process of the torrential rain. The meteorological information comprehensive analysis and processing system (MlCAPS) 3.1 was used to carry out the analysis of profile and sounding to the conventional meteorological data, and final y numerical weather prediction was tested, which got the reason of production and omission of torrential rain. The results showed that one of the im-portant reason of the torrential rain was caused by the combined effects of the dry cold air brought by the middle latitude shortwave trough and the southwest warm wet airflow brought by the jet flow, and the terrain influence caused by the Yishan in southern Liju County and the water evaporation in Mihe River was also an im-portant reason. The main reason for the omission of the rain was caused by the over dependent on the rainfal forecast of numerical products and neglected the evolution of smal scale process as wel as analysis of the physical quantity field. Therefore, it was very important to monitor the actual weather situation and analyze al kinds of physical quantities for forecasting torrential rain. Besides, the forecaster should improve their ability in revising the numerical weather prediction.%为了更好地研究潍坊市暴雨落区，减少暴雨灾害发生，为以后的暴雨预报工作总结经验，提高预报准确率，特对2012年7月9日临朐地区暴雨过程进行诊断分析。利用气象信息综合分析处理系统 MICAPS 3.1，对常规气象资料进行剖面分析、探空分析，最后对数值预报产品进行检验，得出暴雨的产生和漏报原因。结果表明，此次暴雨产生的重要原因是中纬度短波槽带来的干冷空气与低空急流带来西南暖湿气流的叠加，同时临朐县南部沂山造成的地形影响和弥河的水汽蒸发也是其中重要原因。漏报的主要原因是由于过分依赖数值产品的降水预报和忽略中小尺度系统的演变以及对物理量场分析不深入。通过总结分析得出结论，要做好暴雨的预报必须综合考虑天气实况，重点分析各物理量，同时加强预报员对数值预报产品的订正工作。