Climate change affects regional crop production. So far,a quantitative assessment of the long time series impacts remains difficult. Heilongjiang Province is one of the most important grain-producing provinces in China,and its maize production plays an important role in local and national food security. At the same time,Heilongjiang Province has experienced substantial climate change during the last 30 years (1980-2009) . Based on 30 years observational data from thirty meteorological stations,this study firstly analyzed the characteristics of climate changes in the province,and then calculated the light-temperature potential productivity (LTPP) and climatic potential productivity (CPP) by using the crop growth model of FAO AEZ-project. Furthermore,this paper assessed the impacts of climate change on maize potential productivity,and also analyzed the exploitation space of maize productivity. The results showed that: (1) over 30 years,the climate has transitioned from a warm-wet to a warm-dry pattern in Heilongjiang Province,and the climatic tendency of mean temperature and precipitation are 0.55℃ and - 23 mm per decade,respectively. (2) The LTPP and CPP of maize were between 10 583 ~ 14 561 kg/hm2 and 5 426 -10 567 kg/hm2 respectively in the last 30 years. The in-creasing of mean temperature and decreasing of precipitation led to a notable increased LTPP and decreased CPP. (3) The change trends of the exploitation space based on LTPP and CPP over 30 years were both decreasing. The actual yield of maize still has a 66 % and 51 % gap to the LTPP and CPP respectively. That is to say,the exploitation space of maize yield increasing is large relatively.%基于全球气候变化这一不争的事实,本研究以黑龙江省为例,在收集1980-2009年气象站点农业气象资料的基础上,首先运用线性倾向率方法分析了近30年来黑龙江省的气候变化特征;其次运用AEZ模型测算了30个站点1980-2009年30年来的光温和气候生产潜力,分析了30年来黑龙江省玉米光温和气候生产潜力的变化趋势.最后结合现实生产力数据分析了玉米的增产空间.结果表明:(1) 1980-2009年30年间,黑龙江省温度表现为升高趋势,而降水则表现为减少的趋势.(2)伴随着温度的升高,光温生产潜力表现为增加趋势,气候生产潜力则随着降水量的减少而呈减少趋势;(3)相对于光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力上限值而言,玉米的增产潜力空间均表现为减小趋势,但增产空间仍较大,相对于光温生产潜力而言还有66％的增产空间,相对于气候生产潜力也仍有51％的增产空间.
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