基于WEAP模型的董志塬水资源合理利用研究

摘要

We selected the Dongzhi Loess Tableland as target area .Regional water demand was quantified according to socio-economic survey and forecasting .The three main factors including additional water sources ,water savings and deduction of groundwater abstraction ,which influenced the local water supply ,were adopted to compose eight scenarios to predict future water allocation in the area .Then ,the WEAP model (Water Evaluation and Planning System ) was used to simulate the relationship between water supply and demand in the selected three planning years ,best strategies were defined for each planning year based on a comprehensive analysis of the model outputs .Results showed obvious differ-ences between water supply and demand analysis among the eight scenarios simulations .As from the best strategies analy-sis ,under the scenario of groundwater abstraction deduction ,it was very near to a budget balance between water supply and demand in the year of 2015 ,while a similar trend was noted for the year of 2020 ,with adding the other implementa-tion of water savings .In the planning year of 2030 ,along with the increase of water demand due to socio-economic devel-opment ,water deficit (1 .482 × 107 m3 ) was found although all the three supply methods were included in the scenario . Collectively ,we can see that under a background of locally socio-economic development , structure of water utilization would change ,ideas for water allocation should be adjusted along with it ,especially in the water-scarce region .For a sustainable future in the loessial tableland area ,water diversion might be the only way to maintain the local socio-eco-nomic development .%以董志塬为研究区，依据地区经济社会状况及发展规划计算水资源需量。选用影响该区水资源供给及利用的三个主要因素（开源、推行节水措施和缩减地下水开采）构造8种水资源配置预案，基于WEAP模型预测董志塬三个规划年的水资源供需状况并进行最佳预案遴选。结果表明：8种配置预案在不同年份供需关系差异较大；考虑台塬区地下水系统健康的减采措施的最佳预案下，2015年（缩减开采）和2020年（缩减开采＋节水措施）水资源供需基本达到平衡，2030年（缩减开采＋节水措施＋基于立地便利的开源）董志塬总体处于缺水状态，供水缺口为1482万m3。可见，经济社会发展背景下，水资源利用结构发生转变，水资源稀缺地区水资源配置的思路也应该作出相应的调整。从长远来看，积极寻求外调水源是实现黄土台塬区可持续发展的唯一途径。