基于模糊事故树分析法的飞行碰撞风险研究

摘要

Free flight is an effective way to solve the congestions of air traffic flow. Research on collision risk in free flight is very important. Firstly,according to Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis(FFTA) and the factors of collision risk in free flight ,the fault tree of collision risk is set up. Secondly.the effect degree of each basic event in the fault tree is analyzed by calculating the minimum cut set,the minimum path set and the structure important degree. Finally,the failure probabilily of basic event is treated by triangular fuzzy function. The result shows that the method can analyze the fuzzy probability distribution of collision risk in free flight effectively,so the method is feasible.%自由飞行是解决航路拥挤问题的一种有效方式,在自由飞行环境下对飞行碰撞风险问题进行研究显得尤为重要.首先根据模糊事故树分析法和各因素对飞行碰撞风险的影响分析建立了自由飞行环境下的飞行碰撞事故树;其次通过计算最小径集、最小割集和结构重要度来分析基本事件对引起飞行碰撞发生的影响程度;最后利用三角模糊函数模糊化处理基本事件估计概率,计算得到的评估结果表明,方法能很好地对自由飞行环境下的碰撞风险可能性分布进行分析,验证了方法的可行性.