基于熵权和模糊分析的空管运行安全风险评价

摘要

With the growing of air traffic flow in China,the importance of the ATC operational safety has become increasingly prominent,and turned into a research hotspot in this field.Based on the operation data of an aircraft,this paper introduced the theory of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,and has established the ATM operation safety risk assessment index system from "static,dynamic,the other" three aspects.Using analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy to determine the combination weight of the evaluation indexes,also set up the model of ATM operation safety assessment.Finally using this model to evaluate one sector safety risk,consistent with the real situation,proving the feasibility of this model.%随着我国空中交通流量的日益增长,空管运行安全重要性日益凸显,也逐步成为该领域研究热点.引入模糊综合评价理论,基于航空器运行数据,从“静态、动态、其他”三方面构建空管运行安全风险评价指标体系,采用层次分析法和熵权法确定评价指标的组合权重,建立空管运行安全风险的模糊综合评价模型.应用模型对某扇区的安全风险等级进行评估,评价结果与真实情况相符,证明评价模型可行性.