多机场系统耦合高峰服务能力统计评价方法

摘要

Quantifying the coupling relation within multi-airport system is the basis of strategic planning and tactical management of airspace and traffic flow.Capacity envelope curveis used to depict the peak service ability of multi-airport system under coupling operations.Based on its property of convex func-tion,a new estimation method is proposed,called “quantileregression with frequency constraint”.A case study of Shanghai multi-airport systemvalidated the effectiveness and advantages of proposed method by comparing with SIMMOD simulation results.The computed result of “quantileregression with frequency constraint” method shows the significant coupling effect within Shanghai multi-airport system.To be more specific, south operation of arrival/arrival and departure/departure has higher degree of coupling effect than that of north operation,and arrival operation of ZSSS and departure operation of ZSPD has the high-est degree of coupling effect.The results of this paper can accurately reflect real operation situation of Shanghai multi-airport system under normal conditions.%量化评价多机场系统耦合运行关系是实施空域与交通流战略规划和战术调配的重要基础。采用容量包络线描述多机场系统进离场耦合运行高峰服务能力，理论证明了包络线凸函数性质，据此提出基于频次约束的分位回归包络线预测方法；以上海多机场系统为例，以SIMMOD仿真结果为佐证，对比验证了所提方法的有效性和优越性。结果表明，上海两场运行具有显著耦合制约效应，且南向运行进／进和离／离制约程度高于北向运行，虹桥进场与浦东离场间制约程度最高，准确反映了常态运行下虹桥和浦东机场的运行实际。