基于SIR模型的大面积航班延误传播研究

摘要

多年来大面积航班延误为航空运输带来了安全隐患和巨大的经济损失,有必要深入研究大面积航班延误的相关理论,为其防控提供决策依据.基于传染病(SIR)模型的基本思想和航班状态的转化,建立了大面积航班延误传播模型,运用四阶五级龙格-库塔法对模型进行数值求解,并对延误传播参数和消散参数进行了讨论,结果表明,该模型可以客观反映出大面积航班延误传播的动态过程和变化规律,并可为其预防和恢复提供理论依据.%Over the years,the large-scale flight delay hascaused hidden danger and resulted in serious economic losses to the air transportation,therefore it is necessary to study the correlative theories of it and to provide a basis forits prevention and controlling.Based on the basic idea of the transmission of infectious diseases model,a large-scale flight delay propagation model in a specific airspace considering transition among flight statesis established.Runge-Kutta method is used to achieve a numerical solution and an analyzation of both propagation parameter and elimination parameter.It is proved that this model could objectively reflect the dynamic process and change regulation of the large-scale flight delay propagation.