基于FCE的飞行安全风险评估研究

摘要

飞行安全风险评估是飞行安全性分析的重要内容,而传统飞行安全评估方法仍存在评估结果主观性强、精度不够、不确定因素较多等问题.通过研究影响飞行安全的人为因素,建立了影响因素指标体系,提出了基于FCE的飞行安全评估模型,结合具体案例验证了其有效性与准确性,并针对某航空公司的影响因素符合度进行了FCE分析.结论表明,提出的评估模型可以用于发现飞行安全状态存在的问题,具有较高的准确性和有效性,对提高航空安全水平具有参考和指导意义.%Flight safety risk assessment is an important part of flight safety analysis,however,the problems of strong subjectivity,inadequate precision and many uncertainties in evaluation results based on conventional flight safety assessment methods still exist.By studying the human factors that affect flight safety and establishing the index system of influence factors,the flight safety evaluation model is proposed based on method of FCE.The effectiveness and accuracy of this model are verified by analysis of a specific case,and FCE analysis has been carried out for the conformity of flight safety factors of a certain airline company.The conclusion shows that the proposed evaluation model can be used to find the existing problems of flight safety status with high accuracy and effectiveness,which has referential and guiding significance for improving the level of aviation safety.