基于目视间隔条件下的碰撞风险分析

摘要

In order to study the risk of two approaching aircrafts base on visual separation,through the Reich collision model and collision risk model,introducing visual error as an influencing factor,collision risk analysis model base on visual separation is established.The probability of collision between the two aircrafts is analyzed from longitudinal,horizontal and vertical directions,calculating the collision probability of approaching two aircrafts under visual condition as the result of risk analysis.Calculation results show that the collision risk calculated by this model conform to the specified value of aircrafts collision probability provided by ICAO.Therefore,visual separation and visual approach can be a safe air traffic control operation mode to reduce the separation between aircrafts,improve the airspace utilization ratio,increase the traffic flow.%为研究目视间隔条件下进近过程中前后两飞机的碰撞风险问题,通过Reich碰撞模型和碰撞风险模型,引入目视误差作为影响因素之一,建立基于目视间隔条件下的风险评估模型.从纵向、横向、垂向三个维度分析前后两飞机碰撞的概率,求得目视条件下进近两机碰撞的概率,以此作为风险分析的结果.计算结果表明,利用模型计算出的碰撞风险符合国际民航组织规定的航空器空中碰撞概率规定值.故而可证明,目视间隔和目视进近可作为一种安全的空中交通管制运行模式缩小安全间距,提高空域利用率,增加飞行流量.