基于MCMC方法的运输类飞机鸟撞冲击能量研究

摘要

The impact energy of bird strike is an important basis when considering transport aircraft structural safety design and airworthiness provisions formulation.Bird strike related study in our country refers to impact energy standard requirement which ignoring the natural environment of our country.Concerning this issue,the research is carried out under the framework of Bayesian Theory through MCMC method by using Gibbs sampling.The result shows that the proposed method satisfies the practical condition of small sample and provides a foundation for the follow-up safety analysis of bird strike.%鸟撞冲击能量是运输类飞机结构安全设计和鸟撞适航条款制定的重要基础,目前我国运输类飞机鸟撞相关研究都是参照FAA中的鸟撞冲击能量标准要求,并没有考虑我国的自然环境等特点.针对这一问题,运用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛(Markov Chain Monte Carlo,MCMC)估计方法,采用Gibbs抽样原理,在贝叶斯理论的框架下,对我国运输类飞机鸟撞冲击能量开展了研究,在小样本条件下对鸟撞冲击能量概率分布进行估算,为后续鸟撞安全性分析提供了重要基础.