超燃冲压发动机技术风险量化评估方法

摘要

结合多种运筹学方法及超燃冲压发动机自身技术特点,建立了超燃冲压发动机技术风险量化评估模型.采用层次分析法和质量功能展开法将超燃冲压发动机技术风险评估的总目标逐层展开至具体技术层面并计算其权重,并引入技术成熟度等级方法对各项关键的技术风险进行量化分析,结合各关键技术的权重和技术风险量化值可得到超燃冲压发动机综合技术风险的量化评估结果.方法将复杂的超燃冲压发动机技术风险评估问题简化为量化分析和数值模拟的过程,可有效预测和控制超燃冲压发动机研制过程中的技术风险,对超燃冲压发动机的发展方向和战略部署有一定指导作用.%The quantitative evaluation model for technical risk of scramjet was built by combining various operations research methods and the technical characteristics of the scramjet .Analytic hierarchy process (AHP)and Quality function deployment (QFD) were applied to expand the total objective of evaluation to the layer of specific technology layer by layer and the weight of specific technology was calculated .And the risk of different key technology was quantitative analyzed by the method of Technology readiness levels (TRL).The quantitative evaluation result of comprehensive technical risk was obtained by both the weight and the quantitative value of technical risk of each key technology.The method simplified compli－cated evaluation problem of technical risk of scramjet to a process of quantitative analysis and numerical simulation,which can effectively predict and control the technical risk in the developing process of a scramjet project and provide certain guidance to the development direction and strategic deployment of scramjet.