基于ARIMA模型的机场航班延误预测技术研究

摘要

As flight delays become more severe nowadays ,it is crucial and necessary to predict flight de－lays for guiding the airport operations.Due to the demand for forecasting mid －term and long－term flight delays at the airport ,this paper using a time series prediction algorithm ,and developed the ARIMA model to predict the length of the delays by analyzing the historical data from a large domestic of airport.The ex－periment results showed that the ARIMA model was able to provide a relatively accurate prediction of the mid－term and long－term flight delays.Based on the positive evaluations ,the ARIMA model can be used as the theoretical and methodological support for implementing a flight delay warning system in the airport .%在航班延误日益严重的今天,对机场航班进行延误预测,用于指导机场运行保障越来越有必要.考虑对机场中长期航班延误的预测需求,以时间序列预测算法为基础,选择建立ARIMA 模型,并利用国内某大型机场航班历史数据拟合对延误时间序列进行预测.实验结果表明,模型对机场中长期航班延误预测有良好效果,评价结果客观,可为机场航班延误预警管理提供理论与方法支持.