基于复杂网络的恶劣天气对航班延误影响的研究

摘要

根据恶劣天气与机场容量的关系,将每种天气类型转换为容量概率分布,统计分析各种恶劣天气发生时对机场容量的影响作用.根据航班量较饱和的时间段构建了有向有权的复杂网络结构模型,实证分析了网络机场节点的航班延误波及扩散的特性.通过某地区机场的运行数据拟合出不同等级机场航班量、航班计划容量和平均延误时间的关系公式,结合度值定量求出在恶劣天气影响下不同等级机场之间的航班延误波及程度,对恶劣天气导致航班延误的预测与处置提供了理论依据和数据支持.%According to the relationship between bad weather and airport capacity,this paper converts each type of bad weather to capacity probabilistic distribution and analyses the impact on airport capacity when various bad weather happened.According to the time slot of saturated flight quantity in a day,this paper establishes a complex network.Based on the model,it researches the character that flight delay in one airport node can be propagated to other nodes based on the complex network theory.Then based on the operating data of a certain airport,it figures out the formula of flight quantity,capacity of flight plan and average delay time.Finally it will figure out the extent of vertical flight delay propagation based on the degree of nodes quantitatively.And this method will provide a theoretical basis and data support for the forecast and disposal of flight delay propagation due to bad weather.