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China's low-carbon investment pathway under the 2 ?C scenario

机译:2℃情景下的中国低碳投资路径

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摘要

The generally adopted worldwide target is to keep the increase in the global mean temperature lower than 2 ?C by 2100, which is comparable with that of the preindustrial era. It is feasible for China to realize an emission pathway that is consistent with this target;however, we need to understand the roadmap to do so. In this paper, the results of a modeling study by the Integrated Policy Assessment Model for China (IPAC) concerning the investment required to realize the 2 ?C scenario by examining the penetration of low-carbon technologies including energy supply and energy efficiency improvement in end-use sectors is presented. It is found that the investment required in the energy supply sector to realize the 2 ? C scenario could reach CN¥1.2 trillion by 2020, CN¥1.0 trillion by 2030, and CN¥1.4 trillion by 2050. The investment needed for energy saving could reach CN¥1.6 trillion by 2020, CN¥1.8 trillion by 2030, and CN¥1.5 trillion by 2050, which represents the additional investment as compared with the use of old technologies. If the investment required both in the energy supply sector and in energy saving in end-use sectors is considered, the total investment is estimated to be CN¥2.8 trillion by 2020, CN¥2.8 trillion by 2030, and CN¥2.9 trillion by 2050. These investments account for 2.5%of China's total GDP in 2020, 1.3%in 2030, and 0.6%by 2050, which represents quite a small investment percentage to realize the goal of low-carbon development.
机译:全球普遍采用的目标是到2100年将全球平均温度的上升幅度控制在2°C以下,这与工业化之前的时期相当。中国实现与该目标一致的排放路径是可行的;但是,我们需要了解实现这一目标的路线图。本文通过中国综合政策评估模型(IPAC)进行建模研究的结果,该模型涉及通过检查低碳技术的渗透性(包括能源供应和最终能源效率改善)来实现2 µC情景所需的投资介绍了使用领域。发现在能源供应部门实现2? C情景到2020年将达到1.2万亿元人民币,到2030年将达到1.0万亿元人民币,到2050年将达到1.4万亿元人民币。节能所需的投资到2020年将达到1.6万亿元人民币,到2030年将达到1.8万亿元人民币,到2050年达到1.5万亿日元,与使用旧技术相比,这是一笔额外的投资。如果考虑到能源供应部门和最终用途部门在节能方面都需要的投资,那么到2020年,总投资估计将达到2.8万亿元人民币,到2030年将达到2.8万亿元人民币,到2050年将达到2.9万亿元人民币到2020年,这些投资占中国GDP的2.5%,2030年占1.3%,到2050年占0.6%,仅占实现低碳发展目标的很小比例。

著录项

  • 来源
    《气候变化研究进展(英文版)》 |2016年第4期|229-234|共6页
  • 作者单位

    Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing 100038, China;

    Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing 100038, China;

    Environment Science and Engineering College, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;

    Renm Consulting, Beijing 100038, China;

    Beijing University of Mining&Technology, Beijing 100083, China;

    Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China;

  • 收录信息 中国科学引文数据库(CSCD);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-19 03:58:04
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