Analysis on the synergistic effect of sustainable development of coal industry under 1.5 °C scenario

摘要

Based on the coal demand under the 1.5 °C scenario, the amount of coal production in China was estimated in this study. According to the mutual relationship between the factors influencing coal production, an econometric model was constructed based on simultaneous equations, and the synergistic effect of each factor on the coal industry was estimated under the 1.5 °C scenario. Then, predictions were respectively made in the five aspects: coal production, coal science and technology progress, employment number, safe production level, and occupational health level, in different scenarios from 2016 to 2050. The results showed that before 2040, the comprehensive negative effect of the 1.5 °C situation is more than or equals to the positive effect. The 1.5 °C scenario has the biggest negative impact on employment, whose solution should be the focus. By 2050, the positive effects of the 1.5 °C scenario exceed the negative effect because of the enhancement in technical level and in the attention given to the whole production. Safety is improved, and health defects decline and the most obvious positive effect is on the ecological environment. The decrease of coal production will reduce the ecological environmental damage and significantly improve the ecological environment. In general, the prediction of 1.5 °C scenario promotes the increase of scientific production capacity and promotes the orderly development of coal. It has strengthened the safety and health protection degree, made the coal industry more efficient and competitive, and avoided or reduced the impact of coal development on the ecological environment and achieved environmental friendliness. However, the 1.5 °C situation also increases the employment pressure of the society, which affects the economic development of the major coal producing areas, but the situation can be overcome through the transformation and upgrading of the region. Finally, the impacts of various factors under the 1.5 °C scenario were evaluated through a unified comparison of the synergistic effect monetization using the cost and payment willingness methods. Based on the research results, suggestions on the regulation of coal production were proposed relating to resettlement of workers, protection of the ecological environment, and improvement of workers' health.