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首页> 外文期刊>大气科学进展（英文版） >An Algorithm on Convective Weather Potential in the Early Rainy Season over the Pearl River Delta in China
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An Algorithm on Convective Weather Potential in the Early Rainy Season over the Pearl River Delta in China

机译：中国珠江三角洲雨季初期对流天气潜力的算法

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摘要

这篇论文描述过程和方法论提出对流天气潜力(CWP ) 算法。在算法的开发使用的数据是在来自广州 Doppler 雷达车站，从自动气象站(AWS ) 的表面观察和预言(NWP ) 建模的数字天气的产量的 0.5 °举起的雷达回波。开发 CWP 算法的过程由二步组成：(1 ) 根据指定统计标准的雷雨房间的鉴定；并且(2 ) 算法的开发基于多重线性回归。雷雨房间被雷达回波自动地与比大或等于 50 dB (Z) 的紧张识别，一个区域，超过 64 摆平公里。这些房间通常与象雷雨风阵风，冰雹和旋风那样的严重对流天气出现有关。在 CWP 算法的发展，两个都回应 -- 并且基于环境的预言者被使用。predict 并且是一个雷雨房间的概率产生严重对流天气事件。predictor-predictand 关系通过一条逐步的多重线性回归途径被建立。有独立数据集的确认证明 CWP 算法在在华南的珍珠河三角洲(PRD ) 区域检测雷雨相关的严重对流天气出现是熟练的。为一个雷雨过程扔大小写的现在的一个例子被说明。
机译：This paper describes the procedure and methodology to formulate the convective weather potential (CWP) algorithm. The data used in the development of the algorithm are the radar echoes at 0.5° elevation from Guangzhou Doppler Radar Station, surface observations from automatic weather stations (AWS) and outputs of numeric weather prediction (NWP) models. The procedure to develop the CWP algorithm consists of two steps: (1) identification of thunderstorm cells in accordance with specified statistical criteria;and (2) development of the algorithm based on multiple linear regression. The thunderstorm cells were automatically identified by radar echoes with intensity greater than or equal to 50 dB(Z) and of an area over 64 square kilometers. These cells are generally related to severe convective weather occurrences such as thunderstorm wind gusts, hail and tornados. In the development of the CWP algorithm, both echoand environment-based predictors are used. The predictand is the probability of a thunderstorm cell to generate severe convective weather events. The predictor-predictand relationship is established through a stepwise multiple linear regression approach. Verification with an independent dataset shows that the CWP algorithm is skillful in detecting thunderstorm-related severe convective weather occurrences in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region of South China. An example of a nowcasting case for a thunderstorm process is illustrated.

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