为全面剖析淤泥质潮滩变化规律及演变特征,运用修改后的输沙公式建立了淤泥质潮滩演变数值模型.经2000,2007年野外实测数据验证,表明该模型各参数设置准确,较真实地反演了滩涂剖面变化过程,可用于淤泥质潮滩的模拟计算.根据数值模型计算结果得出如下结论:1987-2010年河北省沧州市淤泥质潮滩坡度不断增大,但增长速率变化不大,为0.002×10-3.0 m等深线上部坡度逐渐变缓,年均降低0.021×10-3；下部坡度不断变陡,年均增长0.022×10-3.研究区潮滩未达平衡状态,其坡度将进一步变陡.该输沙模型及研究结论对淤泥质潮滩的保护具有重要的理论指导意义,为其科学开发管理提供实际参考依据.%In order to analyze the evolvement and characteristics of muddy tidal flat, a modified formula, verified to be correct by the field survey data in 2000 and 2007,is used to simulate the evolvement condition of muddy tidal flat. The results show that from 1987 to 2010, the slope of muddy tidal flat increases slowly with the speed of 0. 022 × 10 3 in Cangzhou City of Hebei Province; the slope above 0 m bathymetric line decreases gradually with the speed of 0. 021 × 10~3, while it increases with the speed of 0. 022× 10-3 below the 0 m bathymetric lines and the muddy tidal flat was in the equilibrium state, and the slope would increase in study area. The formulation and conclusions are very important for the protection of muddy tidal flat, and can provide the practical reference on the development and management of muddy tidal flat scientifically.
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