全球黄金供需结构与趋势分析

摘要

Based on gold price and gold supply-demand structure,the authors elaborated gold status change during the evolution of the international monetary system and then analyzed the internal relation and influence mechanism between the change trend of the consumption structure and the gold price.The result indicates that the physical gold's demand exceeds supply while the investment gold is in excess of demand.The demand-supply gap can be used to measure the market index of investment enthusiasm.The investment gold demand-supply gap at a lower level is beneficial to the gold market.%本文以全球黄金供需结构和演变规律为对象,从实物用金和投资用黄金的供求平衡角度分析目前黄金市场形势.研究发现,实物用金一直处于供不应求的形势,而投资用金处于供过于求的局面.投资用金过剩量的多寡是衡量市场投资热情的指标,与黄金价格走势具有高度正向相关性.目前投资用金过剩量依然处于低位,短期内有利于黄金价格反弹上行.