我国农村水利投资的最优规模测度研究

摘要

Barro’ s study concluded that the inverted U-shaped function relationship existed between the economic growth rate and the size of government spending .Based on this theory , we legitimately inferred and measured the optimal investment scale for ru-ral water conservancy .Considering that the rural water conservancy had crowding effect , this research firstly developed an estimation model for the crowding effect of rural water conservancy , and then built the optimal investment scale ( RIOIS) measurement model for rural water conservancy , in which the crowding effect was introduced , finally conducted an empirical analysis according to the data from 1999 to 2013.Our conclusions came to these points:(1) the crowding effect of rural water conservancy existed really in China, being -0.3469.(2) the optimal investment scale for rural water conservancy was 6.73%.Over the years in China, the in-vestment scale for rural water conservancy was always lower than the optimal investment scale , but it had continued to increase , with an average growth rate of about 6.5 percent points .%在Barro得出的经济增长率与政府支出规模间倒U型函数关系的理论基础上，合理推断出农村水利存在最优投资规模，并预期测量了农村水利最优投资规模。考虑到农村水利具有拥挤效应，因此，首先构建了农村水利拥挤效应的测度模型，再构建了引入拥挤效应的农村水利最优投资规模测量模型，并运用1999～2013年的数据进行了实证分析，得出以下结论：（1）我国农村水利确实存在拥挤效应，拥挤效应为－0．3469；（2）我国农村水利最优投资规模为6．73％，历年农村水利投资均低于其最优规模，但一直不断增加，平均增长幅度约为6．5个百分点。