Drought frequency and risk analysis in the Upper Green River Basin, Wyoming.

摘要

The limited length of instrumental streamflow data impacts the true magnitude of natural interdecadal variability of water delivered from the Upper Green River Basin (UGRB). This limited period of instrumental record can be expanded by utilizing proxy records (reconstructed streamflow) derived from tree rings. Recent research has resulted in the development of nine streamflow reconstructions spatially located throughout the UGRB (Barnett, 2008). This paper utilizes four reconstructed streamflow records from those created by Barnett (2008) and instrumental records to compare and analyze differences between the two. Three approaches are used for comparison and analysis: (1) Weibull distribution, (2) Compound Renewal from Loaiciga (2005), and (3) probability distribution functions from Salas et al. (2005). This analysis has resulted in magnitude-duration-frequency curves for UGRB drought. Such probability curves and stochastic analysis can then be utilized in light of Compact agreements and system storage to answer questions such as, "How bad is it right now and what can we expect to happen next year?"