The alliance framework: A micro-level approach to diagnose protracted conflict in South Central Somalia.

摘要

Somalia has been in conflict since January 1991. The approach to explaining the conflict has generally followed the Hobbesian and Schmittian dichotomy with little discussion of institutional failure as a contributing factor. I argue the conflict in South Central Somalia is not among clans. There are three key factors explaining the protraction of South Central conflict. First, the power-sharing model that has been applied in Somali reconciliation conferences since 1991 assumes that the conflict is among clans who are unitary actors; thus, giving all major clans a stake in "an-all-inclusive" transitional governments is thought to be the solution to the conflict. Power-sharing agreements, however, have intensified intraclan struggle for power. Second, the losers of power-sharing agreements have formed alliances of convenience that transcend clans to undermine reconciliation conferences or transitional government that is formed. Third, traditional leaders and informal rules have not been a factor in the success of Somaliland and Puntland, the two most stable regions in Somalia. Rather, their success was the result of the emergence of a dominant group that completed the "state-making" process (Tilly 1980). Hence, I argue, the dominant group model is a better alternative to the power-sharing model to explain stability (Puntland and Somaliland) and persistent conflict (South Central Somalia).