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A multi-paradigm modeling approach for energy systems analysis .

机译:能源系统分析的多范式建模方法。

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摘要

Energy plays a vital role in the world today, driving industry and allowing for technologies ingrained throughout the routines of daily life. The complex interactions, evolution, long time scales of change, and critical nature of the energy system makes modeling and analysis crucial to developing insight on how the evolution of energy systems can be shaped. What is needed is not the development of a uniform model, but a flexible, open framework that allows for the integration of existing and future models. The framework should be flexible to allow the evolution of the questions examined with the model and open to allow sub-model reuse and refinement. The multi-paradigm modeling framework presented here offers this capability. The goal of this modeling framework is to create a dynamic and flexible modeling environment that allows for the level of abstraction of each sub-system to differ and evolve, creating a model which can be used to evaluate how changes in one system can affect other linked systems at differing time-scales and levels of aggregation. The framework is particularly useful for modeling systems that are not yet fully defined due to the flexibility inherent in the approach and the concept of technology pipelines for modeling endogenous technological change has also been introduced to model technological progression. The introduction of PHEVs to the transportation system will provide a strong link between it and the electricity system, dramatically changing both systems. Before policies that regulate this transformational technology are enacted it is critical that the limits of the system are examined to prevent the propagation of unintended consequences. Detailed electricity supply and demand models have been developed and combined with a transportation simulator in order to gauge the impact of PHEV introduction on electricity load profiles and vehicle emissions. In addition, the ability of a complementary technology, vehicle-to-grid power systems, to aid in the integration of large amounts of wind power into the electricity system has been examined. Finally, since the intermittency of wind energy is the chief obstacle towards expanded wind power integration, statistical methods for wind forecasting over large geographic areas have been investigated.
机译:能源在当今世界上起着至关重要的作用,它推动了工业发展并允许在日常生活中根深蒂固的技术。复杂的相互作用,演化,变化的长时间尺度以及能源系统的关键特性,使得建模和分析对于深入了解如何塑造能源系统的演化至关重要。所需要的不是开发统一模型,而是一个灵活,开放的框架,该框架允许集成现有模型和将来的模型。该框架应具有灵活性,以允许随模型讨论的问题得以发展,并应开放以允许子模型的重用和完善。此处介绍的多范式建模框架提供了此功能。该建模框架的目标是创建一个动态且灵活的建模环境,以允许每个子系统的抽象级别不同并不断发展,并创建一个模型,该模型可用于评估一个系统中的更改如何影响其他链接系统。时间尺度和聚合级别不同的系统。由于该方法固有的灵活性,该框架对于尚未完全定义的建模系统特别有用,并且还引入了用于建模内源技术变化的技术管道的概念来对技术进步进行建模。将PHEV引入运输系统将在其与电力系统之间建立牢固的联系,从而极大地改变这两种系统。在制定规范这种变革性技术的政策之前,至关重要的是要检查系统的限制,以防止意外后果的传播。已开发出详细的电力供需模型,并将其与运输模拟器相结合,以便评估插电式混合动力汽车对电力负荷状况和车辆排放的影响。此外,还研究了辅助技术,即车辆到电网的电力系统,有助于将大量风能集成到电力系统中的能力。最后,由于风能的间歇性是扩大风电集成的主要障碍,因此已经研究了用于大范围地理区域的风能预测的统计方法。

著录项

  • 作者

    Hodge, Bri-Mathias Scott.;

  • 作者单位

    Purdue University.;

  • 授予单位 Purdue University.;
  • 学科 Engineering Chemical.;Operations Research.;Energy.;Engineering Industrial.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2010
  • 页码 236 p.
  • 总页数 236
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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